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Leading through uncertainty: navigating complex change in higher education

How do we lead well when old certainties are upended, and change is accelerating? 

When we, and the people we lead, may be reeling from the impact of multiple overlapping crises? 

When polycrisis can engender a state of cognitive shock, a wish to hunker down and defend rather than be open, flexible and innovative? And when we don’t have the answers to the complex and shifting challenges we are collectively facing – so we’re leading from a place of not knowing?   

“I felt more and more of an actress longing to be off the stage”, one senior leader said to me, noting the emotional labour that can come with the role.   

The senior leaders I talk to are constantly reflecting on – and adapting – how they best lead in this uncertain, emotion-laden context, where they can’t provide certainties or answers.   

Many stress the importance of working collaboratively to develop and share realistic but optimistic narratives: 

  • ‘My role is to try…constantly to be helping people see a way forward that is productive and to get beyond the immediate crisis.’
  • ‘I needed to be a storyteller…to listen to what people had to say, and to tell them stories that would be…our story about ourselves and it would be a positive, affirmative story.’ 

Advance HE’s new Framework for Leading in Higher Education talks about the importance of leaders being able to: 

  • understand change and navigate complex and uncertain issues 
  • work with and influence whole/eco-systems and 
  • be collaborative – in creating, deciding and delivering.   

And importantly it highlights the importance of being self-aware, role-modelling and continually learning. 

So what can this look like in practice? Here are just three approaches worth reflecting on. 

Taking perspective  

There can be a huge pull for leaders – particularly in times of crisis or challenge – to focus on action, to concentrate on addressing what is happening in the here and now. It can feel more controllable. As if we have more agency. At least we are doing something.   

But it is also crucial to have the ability to pull back and take a birds-eye view of what is going on – to spot the trends, patterns and shifts in the system as a whole. Not to be caught up in them. And then to step back in, playing what looks to be the most effective role now, having grasped that bigger picture.   

Creating and holding a space for the work to be done 

By the work, I mean the difficult conversations that may need to be held when people come together to try to agree the way forward in a complex and uncertain situation. Where the answer isn’t known; needing intense collaborative working and collective learning to co-create adaptive responses. 

These discussions may raise issues that people (including ourselves) may feel a strong impulse to ignore or smooth over. Maybe because addressing those issues could threaten something important to us. So there can be a collective pull in a group of people to avoid discussions which might affect deep-rooted interests.   

As a leader, this requires the ability to manage the fact that the discussion may feel uncomfortable. Being prepared to create, hold and stay in that space in order to make collective progress with the complex issues at stake.   

Being emotionally adept  

Practising what I recently heard described as ‘Olympic-level’ listening skills and empathy.   

Understanding more about how emotions will affect people’s perceptions of what we are doing or saying as leaders. How emotions are intertwined with ‘rational’ thought, affecting the assumptions that are made, the information that is noticed and the meanings that are made. 

And deepening understanding of how you yourself as a leader impact on the emotions of others – intentionally or unintentionally, for better or for worse.   

“People are watching you, you are a barometer”, as one leader put it. 

Strong and effective leaders take the time to reflect and increase awareness of their own emotional profile – their triggers, what boosts and depletes their emotional energy.  Because they are acutely aware of emotional contagion – that part of their leadership role is to manage their own emotional state because of its effect on others. 

A final thought 

Our leadership role at work is the point of connection between ourselves as individuals and the system we are in. 

Our effectiveness as leaders – particularly in times of challenge, uncertainty and change – lies in our ability to navigate this interface. To understand what is going on for us; and what is going on for others in the system. And, crucially, to distinguish between the two. 


About the author: Sarah Smith is an advanced executive coach and senior leadership development adviser. She draws from her experience as University Secretary and Vice-Principal in the University of Edinburgh, and as a senior leader in UK and Scottish Governments. She holds a Masters from INSEAD in systems psychodynamic change and is a member of Advance HE’s Leadership and Management Strategic Advisory Group and the steering group for the Framework for Leading in Higher Education.  

This article has been kindly repurposed from Advance HE and you can read the original here.